Federal Reserve: Rates unchanged; no hint on timing of next hike
WASHINGTON >> The Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates unchanged in light of an uncertain job market and offering no hints of when its next rate hike might occur.
The Fed noted in a statement Wednesday after its latest policy meeting that the pace of hiring has slowed even as the overall economy has improved.
The central bank indicated that it needs a clearer picture of economic developments before raising rates again. It noted that the housing market is improving and that the consequences of an export slowdown have lessened. Yet it signaled its concern about the uncertainty of job growth and global economic developments.
Some economists think a July rate increase is possible if the job market rebounds from a dismal May and financial markets remain calm after Britain's vote next week on whether to leave the European Union.
"There are too many uncertainties to justify pulling the trigger," said Sung Won Sohn, an economist at the University of California's Martin School of Business. The Fed "wants to make sure that the surprisingly weak payroll number for May is a temporary phenomenon and not a harbinger of a weaker economy to come."
Besides issuing a policy statement, the Fed updated its economic forecasts, which show how it foresees rate hikes unfolding in coming months. A survey of the 17 officials found that six think there will be only one rate hike this year, up from just one official who thought so at the Fed's March meeting. The median expectation remains for two rate hikes this year.
The expectations for rate hikes in future years did slow: The median forecast shows just three hikes in 2017 and three in 2018, down from an expectation of four for each year. That change suggests that Fed officials remain concerned about a recovery that is still sending mixed signals on jobs and inflation and that they are comfortable that rates can be left ultra-low for longer.
The officials sounded a slightly more downbeat note about the economy's growth this year and next compared with their forecasts three months ago. They now expect just 2 percent growth both this year and next year, down from their previous forecast of 2.2 percent for this year and 2.1 percent for 2017.
Stock investors had little reaction to the Fed's statement. Stocks traded about where they were before the statement was released at 2 p.m. Eastern time. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note did edge down to 1.58 percent from 1.60 percent.
The Fed's move to leave rates unchanged was approved 10-0. Esther George, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, who had dissented in earlier meetings because she favored faster rate hikes, backed Wednesday's decision to keep rates unchanged.
For weeks, the Fed had been expected to consider raising rates at its June meeting. That view was encouraged by the minutes of its previous meeting in April.
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